Autor
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Tema: La persistència de la AO+ (Llegit 5643 vegades)
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Sándor
100% potencia sexual
Cumulonimbus Incus
 Desconnectat
Missatges: 6264
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Hola, una cuestión, que sé que tiene difícil respuesta desde nuestro conocimiento (Imposible desde el mío), ahí va:
¿A que atribuis la persistencia en el tiempo, de forma tan tremenda, de la NAO+?
¿Creéis que el Efecto del Niño puede tener algún efecto en ello?
¿La primaver puede aportar NAO-?
Quiero encontrar alguna explicación que me saque del pesimismo. Me da miedo el verano con esta tendencia que llevamos.
 
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En línia
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Gerard Taulé
Cumulonimbus Incus
Desconnectat
Missatges: 6776
El meteofanàtic de la illa de calor gironina
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És el que he dit en l´altre tòpic. A un del treball li dic que tindrem una siberiana pel març, tant de bo ho encerti!!!!
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En línia
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Salt (Gironès), 84 m 15,4º, 750 mm, 41º i -7,8º Blog "El clima i la meteorologia" gerardtaule.blogspot.com www.acom.esLa meteorologia és la sal de la vida del meteofanàtic |
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tro
Profesor Bacterio
Cumulonimbus Calvus
Desconnectat
Missatges: 2813
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bé doncs, comencen ja els mesos bons per seguir l'estratosfera polar, tema realment interesant a la vegada que complexíssim.
Estaria bé que entre tots aportèssim material ja que el vòrtex és un director d'orquesta molt important en l'hivern nostre i en el de tota la zona de l'hemisferi nord.
Inserto un article de Aldo Meschiari, d'avui, que em permeto traduir-lo a l'anglés, i que suposo que alguns ho entendreu. Es diu varies coses interesants. Si no és així, que no s'entén, ja ho anirem comentant.
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We now have a configuration ENSO ---, AMO + +, PDO- and IOD weakly positive. Ergo, as I said, azzorriano intrusive dall'Atlantico towards western Europe, often in figure blocking in his tendency to go back toward the northeast, and saccature Arctic, coming from Polar Vortex forced to bypass this area altopressoria north clockwise, down south from scandinavo-russa with the privileged target central Europe and the Balkans. The QBO continues to be strongly antizonale (blue) and therefore very negative. Now we know that, in conjunction with a period of minimum solar undecennale means strong disturbance of Polar Vortex, which tends to level ozone already taking not only speeds below normal, but also and above all a very unbalanced, easy prey for possible forcing anticiclonici subtropical, which not only disturb the race, but can also lead to real split (division).
If this is the scenario teleconnettivo already well know, after the winter solstice and especially during the months of January, February and March starts to become important analysis stratospheric. It is known for some time now, even if you do not know fully the mechanisms that the strong decrease dell'irradiazione sun in autumn and winter months leads to the formation in high troposphere and stratosphere in a strong vortex, running fast around the pole: Watching the polar vortex. We also know that this vortex is much stronger dall'abbassamento heat due to the low winter sun. In addition, the amount of ozone in the stratosphere strongly determines the structure of the polar vortex (VP). As soon as the sun's rays to heat back polar region is witnessing a slow increase of ozone that in turn progressive and repeated disturbances to the VP race crowds. That is why it is winter or mature finals period more propitious for large warming. And that's why last year was for us not a winter dominated an enduring stracooling who did that constantly reinforce the resulting pattern VP AO + + and + + NAO.
But what exactly a StratWarming?
Literally means a strong heating of the stratosphere due to various factors, still not fully understood, is linked to the quantity and distribution of ozone, forcing both coming from the bottom, from the troposphere. Of course we know that during strong Stratwarming, called MMW (Major Midwinter Warming) have been the most powerful cold burst of history, for example, as we are concerned, the mythical 1985. The report troposphere and the stratosphere is very narrow, and a strong heating in an area of the stratosphere reverberates down going to powerfully influence the troposphere, and if the energy is enough to disturb the VP until real split ( division).
After the necessary theoretical explanation, we are analyzing forecasts stratosferiche for the foreseeable future.
As can be seen in the paper reported, are expected warming in the lower stratosphere interesting is when aleutinica that when Siberian: evidence of a strong future disturbance of VPs? But the novelty is in the possible warming nord-atlantico located on the southern Greenland. This could encourage troposphere in the formation of a strong anticiclone block in the middle of the northern thrust towards southeast with core cold that the first was on the ground, as seen in the second paper. In short, it is to be very careful to medium and long term: January could bring something very important for Europe.
Finally we come to MJO, Madden Julian Oscillation. These dell'oscillazione cyclic distribution phenomena convettivi (large tropical rain) in the area between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Its location is also important for us, because in correlation with the ENSO we can give useful statistical information on the future European weather. His race this year seems unabated. Now it is undergoing 4, in quick move to phase 5. If it towards the middle of the month to go phases 6 and 7, could help in any way interesting scenarios for our winter peninsula.
Dear friends, as you have read, the scenario teleconnettivo for the second half of winter is very interesting. However, I must always remember that a fundamental principle when dealing with this branch of meteorology still in the experimental stage. Using no accident that the term scenario regarding teleconnessioni because it is easier to understand the predictive value following this theatrical metaphor. The key indices, I would remind you, are those of SSTA (temperature anomalies of surface waters of oceans), those stratosferici and those related to solar. The others (such as NAO) are often the only consequence of the particular configurations bariche taken at the regional level: it is still considering whether they can have some regular and predictable cycles. We know, for example, that for many years now the index EA, essential for Europe, is mainly being positive. Now if climate indexes represent the scene, the scenic backdrop, the real and concrete situations to the particular weather resulting figures bariche are comparable to the players that move on this scene. The scene (the index) may indicate the limits of their travel, the scope of their representation, the same argument of the states (for example in a Renaissance setting certainly can not play an actor dressed as a man of 2007), but at the end the various actors (the figures bariche) will be free to recite their script (nature) moving within the scene. Easier naturally perceive the party will play the protagonists (the most important regional areas, such as nord-America or Siberia), much more difficult to understand how to move the secondary actors and extras. Do not ever forget that in the great scene of the planet Italy has a climate similar to that of an appearance.
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En línia
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Guissona - La Segarra
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5gener.jpg
qui sap ...
