Pàgines: [1] 
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Autor
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Tema: anàlisis teòric de l'hivern (Llegit 190 vegades)
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tro
Profesor Bacterio
Cumulonimbus Calvus
 Desconnectat
Missatges: 2813
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Ho fico aqui, podria ficar-ho a seguiment també, però penso que aquí no quedarà tant perdut enmig de les aportacions a seguiment de models.
Es tracta de les explicacions teòriques que jo trobo tant interessants en aquest complexe caldo caòtic de l'atmosfera que aquesta setmana explica amb més detall un meteoròleg que sovint, o de tant en tant, llegeixo,... Joe Bastardi.
Personalment ho trobo molt interessant per l'enfoc general que dona a l'evolució de l'atmosfera, amb aquelles teleconexions tant difícils de relacionar i que són les que marquen el guió del dia dia de les temporades o estacions. Tema complexe, complexíssim, però que ell tracta de raonar, a pesar de les dificultats del que això suposa.
En l'explicació que fa, d'avui mateix, 20-02-06, explica una mica les correlacions en tot l'hemisferi nord de lo que ha anat succeint durant la temporada d'hivern, relacionant-ho amb l'etapa d'huracans de la última temporada. També ens explica que per fi arriba el clàssic patró de NAO- i lo que creu que passarà els propers 10 dies.
la putada és que és en anglès, clar,   però tampoc cal saber-ne molt per agafar les idees. Els traductors no sé si són massa bona solució, ja sabeu com funcionen 
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HARSHEST WEATHER OF THE WINTER FOR ALL OF EUROPE.
It took all winter, but finally the classic negative NAO has developed and a very nasty 10 days is in store for Europe with temperatures well below normal for areas from the Baltics to Spain and northwest and a major storm development southwest of Italy and a move to the northeast into the Balkans later in the week.
The last time I posted, I let you know that changes in the Pacific would force changes across North America that can lead to this. Let's review: The month of January features brutal cold from southern and eastern Europe through much of Asia. This basin of cold air is part of what older American forecasters that I learned from used to call the bathtub effect. If one views the Northern Hemisphere as a basin for cold air, the two source regions are Asia, the largest and North America. What happens when the Atlantic is quite warm after a big hurricane season is that nature tries to balance this out by turning the continents cold. I am not going to assume here the ideas of global warming can be incorporated. Certainly most people from central europe east this January had little tolerance for talk of the earth warming, while here in the states, it was all the rage since we had the warmest January ever. That is because in situations like this year, the biggest continent, Asia, had the cold develop more strongly there and the "sloshing of the bathtub" sort to speak means it gets warm on the other side, in North America. Without cold air masses coming off North American into the warm Atlantic, we don't see the kind of trofs develop that can develop the negative NAO.
However the bathtub theory means that as the increase in solar radiation starts the warming of the Asian subcontinent jet consideration start the process of getting the bathtub to slosh back to the other side of the pole. In the states, the adage in winters like this is what happens in December, the winter will remember. And remember, it has as arctic air has overspread North America.
Now, there are other factors too. A sudden drop of the southern Oscillation index means energy was added into the atmosphere from the tropical Pacific and this also helped out. But now cold air can blast off North American into the warm Atlantic and develop storms that are lowering the mean pressure over the aTlantic farther south. This is finally allowing the jet from the North American trof, full of mature arctic air, to feed back and undercut the upper ridge and force it back to Greenland, and so the classic negative NAO is developing and will assert itself the next 10-15 days.
With the low pressure development over the south of France, northeast winds are carrying cold air into the northwest part of Europe and this means unsettled weather the next few days. The upper low over France will force the development of a strong surface system that cuts northeast with heavy snows over the Alps and southeast Germany and Poland.
Meanwhile the deepening of the mean trof near the northeast coast of North America forces even more ridge over Greenland and the jet on the eastern side digs anew into central Europe with the most WIDESPREAD arctic outbreak of the season by next weekend. While this won't be as cold in the east as previous outbreaks, it will be colder across the west. Much of England will see some snow over the next 10 days and temperatures across France are liable to average 3-5 C below normal the week of the 26th, for instance.
So, some nasty weather, certainly the most WIDESPREAD cold in relation to normal is developing as finally the negative NAO is developing a classic look -- one that will mean plenty of stormy, cold weather the next 10-15 days for all of Europe, except the southeast where it is more wet than cold.
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encertarà o no en les previsions però l'anàlisi que fa.... bravo.
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En línia
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Guissona - La Segarra
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Gerard Taulé
Cumulonimbus Incus
Desconnectat
Missatges: 6892
El meteofanàtic de la illa de calor gironina
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Tot està interconnectat el planeta, meteorològicament. Si fa calor en un lloc en l´altre està fred, i si venim d´un estiu càlid les borrasques són més actives i circulen més al S del normal, mentres l´anticicló siberià és més fort i envia una massa siberiana cap a Europa al mes de gener fent que aquest gener hagi sigut molt fred sobretot a l´E d´Europa. Això és el que he entès, si m´he equivocat ja m´ho direu, és que jo l´anglès no el domino gaire.
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En línia
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Salt (Gironès), 84 m 15,4º, 750 mm, 41º i -7,8º Blog "El clima i la meteorologia" gerardtaule.blogspot.com www.acom.esLa meteorologia és la sal de la vida del meteofanàtic |
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nasiet
Sinner, la lupa!!
Cumulonimbus Incus
Desconnectat
Gènere: 
Missatges: 5054
Penyagolosa, Gegant de pedra.
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Gerard, aixó es lo que es diu "L'autoregulació" ?
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En línia
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Gerard Taulé
Cumulonimbus Incus
Desconnectat
Missatges: 6892
El meteofanàtic de la illa de calor gironina
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Sí, una cosa així, m´agradaria dominar l´anglès, Klipsus tradueix-ho si us plau, quan puguis!!!!
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En línia
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Salt (Gironès), 84 m 15,4º, 750 mm, 41º i -7,8º Blog "El clima i la meteorologia" gerardtaule.blogspot.com www.acom.esLa meteorologia és la sal de la vida del meteofanàtic |
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Gerard Taulé
Cumulonimbus Incus
Desconnectat
Missatges: 6892
El meteofanàtic de la illa de calor gironina
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Diu: "Ambient fred a quasi tota Europa els propers dies sobretot a França (3-5º) i molt humit a Grécia".
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En línia
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Salt (Gironès), 84 m 15,4º, 750 mm, 41º i -7,8º Blog "El clima i la meteorologia" gerardtaule.blogspot.com www.acom.esLa meteorologia és la sal de la vida del meteofanàtic |
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Pàgines: [1] 
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